Vol 11, No 3 (2020)

Full Issue

ECONOMICS

JUSTIFICATION OF PRIORITIES FOR SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL ENTERPRISES AT THE REGIONAL AND MUNICIPAL LEVELS (USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE SAMARA REGION)

Bessonov I.S.

Abstract

Abstract: Despite the growing interest of modern scientists in the spatial approach in the regional economy, it has practically not been developed in relation to the small business sector. In a series of articles, the author described and justified the spatial potential of small enterprises as a modern tool for managing the regional economy, developed a theoretical method for its implementation. In this article, the procedures for the stage of strategic goal setting are implemented. On the basis of content analysis, the author studied and systematized priorities of spatial development of small enterprises in federal, regional and municipal documents of a strategic nature, which are classified as documents of strategic goal setting, forecasts, spatial concepts, programs and projects. He determined the correspondence between the structure of the economic space and the levels of economic management. Carried out an assessment of differentiation of development measures at the regional and municipal structural levels of the economic space, on its basis, gave a characteristic of the development policy of small enterprises implemented in the Samara Region. Strategic documents at the federal, regional, and municipal levels, as well as regional legislation and programs, are used as information sources. The results of the study – identified and justified priorities for the spatial development of small enterprises - create a scientific basis for the development of practical recommendations to regional and municipal authorities in the spatial aspect, allowing for the «fine-tuning» of state and municipal development measures.

 

Abstract: Despite the growing interest of modern scientists in the spatial approach in the regional economy, it has practically not been developed in relation to the small business sector. In a series of articles, the author described and justified the spatial potential of small enterprises as a modern tool for managing the regional economy, developed a theoretical method for its implementation. In this article, the procedures for the stage of strategic goal setting are implemented. On the basis of content analysis, the author studied and systematized priorities of spatial development of small enterprises in federal, regional and municipal documents of a strategic nature, which are classified as documents of strategic goal setting, forecasts, spatial concepts, programs and projects. He determined the correspondence between the structure of the economic space and the levels of economic management. Carried out an assessment of differentiation of development measures at the regional and municipal structural levels of the economic space, on its basis, gave a characteristic of the development policy of small enterprises implemented in the Samara Region. Strategic documents at the federal, regional, and municipal levels, as well as regional legislation and programs, are used as information sources. The results of the study – identified and justified priorities for the spatial development of small enterprises - create a scientific basis for the development of practical recommendations to regional and municipal authorities in the spatial aspect, allowing for the «fine-tuning» of state and municipal development measures.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):7-17
pages 7-17 views

DEVELOPMENT OF EXPORT OF HIGH-TECH AND INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS

Gredasova E.E.

Abstract

The article discusses the main criteria for classifying goods, works, services as innovative products and (or) high-tech products, the necessary economic efficiency of using these products, the existing measures of state support for innovation in the sectors of the economy. In order to consider goods, works or services high-tech, they must be produced or rendered by high-tech organizations using the latest technological equipment, technological processes and technologies, and with the participation of highly qualified personnel. The author researches the interpretations in the scientific literature and the legislative base of the concepts of «high-tech», «science-intensive» and «innovative products», analyzes the dynamics of exports by product groups and analyzes the level of highly qualified personnel based on the international ranking by countries. The author developed and formulated proposals on amendments to the regulatory framework in order to develop the export of high-tech and innovative products. The author made a conclusion that the analysis of the structure of incomes by export items shows that it is necessary to develop new directions, to provide government support in the form of subsidies in order to increase the level of their competitiveness in international markets.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):18-26
pages 18-26 views

ECONOMIC PROCESSES OF INNOVATION DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL INITIATIVE

Tyukavkin N.M.

Abstract

In the article the author views economic and managerial issues of development of innovative activities of industrial enterprises based on the implementation of economic processes of the National technological initiative; presents the parameters of NTI implementation; shows that the effectiveness of innovative development of industry determines the creation of future markets, allowing enterprises to shape the image of the future of industry, to carry out a continuous and complex innovation process, the production of innovations, their commercialization and market demand. The author substantiates the relevance of implementing the processes of innovative development of the industrial complex of the region on the basis of NTI, which consists in the fact that the creation of innovations and their commercialization allowed enterprises to have a leading position among similar manufacturers, creating products with a high level of knowledge intensity, thereby forming new technological markets. NTI stimulates the development of new markets, determining the forecast of economic development. Innovative development of the region's industrial complex on the basis of NTI involves the creation of an integration grouping of the industrial sector on the basis of the innovation ecosystem. The most significant result of the research is the development of a model and an algorithm for evaluating the innovative ecosystem of the industrial complex of the region based on NTI. The model reflects that the development of STI projects is carried out through the innovation support infrastructure. In order to implement innovative STI projects, a regional ecosystem of innovation support is being created on the basis of industrial clusters. The main importance in the ecosystem is the network connections of participants in innovative processes and their technological capabilities (points of technological growth). In the article it is shown that the strategy for implementing STI to create new markets and technologies is based on the innovative activity of industrial complexes. In the model of the proposed ecosystem of innovative support for the industrial complex of the region based on NTI, an algorithm for evaluating the effectiveness of its functioning has been developed.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):27-34
pages 27-34 views

ANALYSIS OF THE EVALUATION OF EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MUNICIPAL-LEVEL CONTRACT SYSTEM IN THE REGION

Ioda E.V.

Abstract

One of the main concepts of the Federal Law of 05.04.2013 № 44-FL «On the contract system in the procurement of goods, works, services for the provision of state and municipal needs» is the contract system in the procurement of goods, works, services for the provision of state and municipal needs. The paper explored the theoretic and methodological and regulatory aspects of functioning of the contract system in Russia; the organization of assessment of effectiveness of the contract system at the municipal level in the region has been analyzed; possible ways to improve the mechanism for assessing the contract system at the municipal level have been identified and substantiated. At present, systems for evaluating the effectiveness of their work are of particular importance in the process of customer organization. The task of such a system is to make the work of state bodies more open and understandable for citizens, to reflect the professional qualities of a staff member, to create a well-established scheme of turnover of state budget funds. The authors evaluated and analysed the effectiveness of the contract system on the example of a particular municipality in the region and developed tools and techniques to improve the mechanism for assessing the effectiveness of the contract system; tools for determining the effectiveness of the contract system at the municipal level have been established. The qualitative work on the implementation of the procurement efficiency assessment system will enable all the principles of the contract system established by the law to be implemented and to achieve the high professionalism of customers.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):35-48
pages 35-48 views

CURRENT TRENDS IN THE FUNCTIONING OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF AN INNOVATIVE ECONOMY

Ivanenko L.V., Andreev O.S.

Abstract

The proposed article considers the need to recognize the economic utility and social value of human resources, the development of which requires investment in comparison with other types of economic resources. The urgency of solving the problem of functioning of higher education system is dictated by the need to apply new approaches to the management of an educational institution. Successful companies focus their efforts on creating and developing a management system for educational institutions designed to work effectively with intellectual resources that are becoming less used today. All these circumstances explain the emergence of a special interest of scientists and practitioners in the management of intellectual capital and the effectiveness of the knowledge process. In this regard, there is a need for constant updating and change, which means that knowledge is always innovative. At the same time, the most interesting are the ways of transforming universities into a new type of organization focused on meeting the needs of the market, making a profit, developing innovative technologies, supporting high-tech research projects and managing them. Close interaction of business corporations with the University community, forms a diversified financial base, develops contacts with business, society and the state, and encourages the widespread use of initiative and support for innovation in the scientific and educational environment. The new conceptual approach has enriched the practice with progressive methods and technologies for managing people in a complex innovative environment. The priorities were flexible forms of labor use, continuous improvement of the quality of human resources, new approaches to organizing and stimulating labor, and addressing cultural and ethical factors of labor productivity and quality of life. The main components of scientific novelty are the regulation and mutual influence of the functioning infrastructure and the applied methodology of higher education.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):49-57
pages 49-57 views

ECONOMIC CONTENT OF MEDICAL SERVICES

Lukin A.G., Cherkasov S.N., Saraev A.R.

Abstract

In the article the authors proposed to consider the economic content of medical services from the points of view of the mutual influence of medicine and economics in the system of public relations; identified the factors determining the increasing influence of economic categories on the provision of medical services at the current stage of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation; analyzed the consequences of such increased influence on the quality of medical services. In particular, the authors noted that at the present stage there has been a tendency to absolutize the economic influence on medicine and grow it into the essence of medical service and healthcare in general. The authors justified that it is impossible to put an equal mark between a medical service and an economic service, since they are aimed at achieving different results. As the main result of the work, the authors made a conclusion that the current economic content of medical services in the country, including its legal regulation, both civil and administrative, does not fully meet both the needs of its consumers and the requirements of its providers. In this regard, the authors proposed to expand the range of economic instruments used to ensure high quality on the one hand, and on the other hand, accessibility of medical services.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):58-65
pages 58-65 views

DYNAMICS OF GRP PER CAPITA DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE BORDER REGIONS OF RUSSIA AND FINLAND

Moroshkina M.V.

Abstract

The article analyzes the dynamics of interregional differences in the border regions of Russia and Finland. Border regions have advantages related to their geographical location, which results in a wider range of foreign economic relations with other countries of the world community due to the transport accessibility of the territory. The aim of the research is to provide a better understanding of the geographical location of the area. The aim is to study the economic development of the neighbouring countries' border areas (the economies of Russia and Finland are covered in this article). The object of the research is the border regions of Russia and Finland, and the subject of the research is the level of interregional differentiation of these border areas. The study of interregional differences is carried out when applying the tools used in modeling σ and β-convergence based on the calculation of the coefficient of variation. The indicator for comparative analysis of interregional differentiation of border regions is the dynamics of GRP per capita. In the current study the indicators of regional development of different national economies are considered. Socio-economic indicators in statistical collections are presented in different units of measurement. In order to carry out a comparative analysis of the economic indicators under study, the indicators were compared to a single unit of account. The process of comparing economic indicators was carried out using the dynamics of changes in the average exchange rate of the euro to the ruble. The analysis of σ- and β-convergence carried out as a result of the study has determined different dynamics of regional development, which is characterized by a slow decrease in the interregional differentiation. As a result of this trend, we can talk about the process of convergence of levels of economic development of border regions in the long run.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):66-73
pages 66-73 views

ASSESSMENT OF THE SECTORAL SPECIALIZATION OF EARLY ENTREPRENEURS: DATA FROM MODERN COUNTRIES

Pinkovetskaia Y.S.

Abstract

The relevance of the study of early entrepreneurship in modern national economies is determined by the increasing importance of entrepreneurs in both developed and developing countries. Entrepreneurs make a significant contribution to the economic growth, increasing gross domestic product, creating new jobs, and reducing poverty and social exclusion. Therefore, one of the main tasks of public administration bodies is to develop and implement measures that ensure an effective sectoral policy in the field of business development.
The purpose of the study becomes the assessment of the current level of specialization of early entrepreneurs in modern national economies. In the course of the research, the following tasks were solved: determining the main sectors in which entrepreneurs create their business; forming an array of empirical data describing the specific weights of entrepreneurs specializing in the production of goods and services in the total number of early entrepreneurs by country; developing economic and mathematical models that characterize the two main sectors of specialization of early entrepreneurs. The source of information for assessing the industry specialization of start-up entrepreneurs became the data provided in the Global entrepreneurship monitoring project, based on the results of a survey of more than 2000 early entrepreneurs in each of the 50 countries. In the process of economic and mathematical modeling, the authors developed density functions of normal distribution. The result of the computational experiment was an assessment of the values of indicators that characterize the involvement of early entrepreneurs in the production and service sectors of national economies. As a result of the research, the average values and ranges of changes in indicators of industry specialization were established, and countries with high and low values of indicators were identified; a comparative analysis of the values of indicators for Russia and foreign countries is carried out; three hypotheses put forward during the research were confirmed. The obtained research results have a significant novelty and originality, they have a certain theoretical and applied value. The proposed indicators and their calculation models can be used in justifying business development programs by the government, regional and municipal authorities. The results of calculations are of interest to entrepreneurs, including beginners.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):74-81
pages 74-81 views

THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF INNOVATION MANAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF MODERN ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Chebykina M.V., Leonov S.A.

Abstract

Innovation processes are an integral part of modern economic system. They are observed at all levels of production. When analyzing possible measures to improve the efficiency of production of goods or services, the most promising ones were those that relate to the intensification of innovative processes in the organization's management due to their immateriality. In the article the authors highlight a number of historical aspects that affect the economic content of the elements of the production chain, briefly discuss the evolutionary stages of transition from mass production to quality, increasing the value of internal motivation in these processes.
The authors compared two models of behavior of economic entities: the neoclassical economic person and the innovator; and the conclusion was drawn about the advantages of choosing the latter. The authors explained the importance of innovative search, as well as its opportunities and prospects at the enterprise level, as well as at the industry and macro levels. The authors consider the factors of the external environment that influence the introduction of innovations in management, identifies and explains the endogenous factors that affect innovation processes, and draws conclusions about the need to form certain norms to stimulate innovative activities.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):82-91
pages 82-91 views

MANAGEMENT

ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL MORTGAGE INEQUALITY: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF METHODS AND RESULTS

Korosteleva T.S., Tselin V.Y.

Abstract

The article focuses on the study of the problems of assessing regional mortgage inequality in the Russian Federation. Based on an analysis of the experience of Russian and foreign economists and regionalists in the field of spatial inequality, possible approaches to assessing the disproportions in the regional mortgage market development are investigated. Calculations were carried out using the differentiation coefficient for extreme values of regions, fund coefficient for extreme groups of regions, log-normal distribution according to the 90/10 method, variation coefficient, Lorentz concentration coefficient and Gini index, Theil coefficient, as well as a differential indicator (author's development) of the development level of the housing mortgage lending system (HML) in the region and some other indicators. An economic interpretation of the calculation results is given. The significant variability of the various methods of estimation results is shown. On the basis of a comparative analysis of the approaches and their results, a substantiated method for assessing regional mortgage inequality was carried out. Statistical methods, including multivariate analysis, as well as expert assessment, were used as the methodological base of scientific research. The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in substantiating the expediency of using the differential indicator proposed by the authors, characterizing the development level of the HML system in specific regions, to solve the problems of assessing the mortgage inequality of Russian subjects.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):92-106
pages 92-106 views

ASSESSMENT OF THE PROSPECTS FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY «DOLTS CATCHING» IN EDUCATIONAL SPHERE

Polesskiy G.A.

Abstract

The article is of an overview nature and is devoted to the generalization of foreign experience in the implementation of innovative technology «DOLTS CATCHING» in the educational environment. The author analyzes the costs of implementing this technology in higher education institutions, identifies the main opportunities for using this technology and identifies the tasks that it allows you to solve. The author also identified the main consequences of using the «DOLTS CATCHING» technology for the educational process. This study is intended to supplement the set of theoretical provisions and practical recommendations, as well as to form a model for the formation of the technological potential of an educational institution and reserves for intensifying its growth based on relations with innovative companies. The conducted research and analysis of the practical experience of implementing the innovative this technology showed that for the development of the efficiency of functioning of the economy, it is necessary to carry out a total digitalization of education in Russia on the basis of up-to-day technology. Currently, there are already six universities in the world, two industry research centers and the US Department of Youth Affairs are collaborating on the implementation of «DOLTS CATCHING» technology. As a result, more technology innovation students can develop their education and training and acquire new knowledge in collaboration with businesses. The conducted research allows us to conclude that this technology can be applied in the field of education in the Russian Federation.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):107-113
pages 107-113 views

ORGANIZATIONAL AND ECONOMIC MECHANISM OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES

Saksin A.G., Sedov I.A.

Abstract

In this article, the author has modernized the organizational and economic mechanism of project management of innovation and investment activities of integrated industrial structures, which is focused on the innovation of budgeting and provides integration of the constituent elements: the hierarchy of management levels, functions of investment and innovation management processes, the subject structure and evaluation criteria based on a systematic approach. The main attention is paid to the formation of a model of information support for project management in a multi-level integrated structure based on the START-up-IP system using the ALTIUS – START software product. An algorithm for project management of innovation and investment activities of integrated industrial structures is proposed. The evaluation of the main performance indicators of the integrated industrial structure of SIBUR-Neftekhim as a result of the implementation of the proposed mechanism is given.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):114-122
pages 114-122 views

FORMATION OF A PROJECT MODEL FOR MANAGING INNOVATION AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES OF INTEGRATED INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURES

Sedov I.A., Saksina E.V.

Abstract

In the proposed article, the conceptual apparatus on the problem of project management of investment and innovation activities of industrial enterprises of integrated multi-level structures is clarified and supplemented. The author's definitions of the concepts of «innovation and investment activity», «integrated industrial structures», «project management» and «budgeting» are given. The main attention is paid to the formation of a project model for managing innovation and investment activities of integrated industrial structures using integral assessments.
A model of budgetary management of investment and innovation activities of industrial enterprises of a multilevel integrated structure based on the method of end-to-end budgeting is proposed. A multiorbit structure for managing budgeting processes for innovative and investment activities has been developed.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):123-131
pages 123-131 views

HUMANE RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

ESSENTIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF «LIBERATED LABOUR» IN MODERN SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

Grudina S.I.

Abstract

The labor market is an important indicator of economic development. The primary task of modern scientific research is to find a solution to the issues of development of social and economic well-being in a transformational economy, as the phase of changes and rethinking of experience affects almost all spheres of human activity. The attitude that one has towards their work is also being reconsidered. Human labour is being more and more replaced by machine labour, robotics is being introduced, different processes are automated, digitalized. All this reflected in the qualitative and semantic component of labour, which acquires the features of «liberated labour» from the «alienated labour», according to the theory of Karl Marx, where the boundaries between the worker and resting time are being erased. Nowadays the progress in the field of digital and computer technologies of the industrial sector is carried out at a high speed and leads to the inability of functioning by the old principles of «saving on creativity». Scientific novelty of the research work is presented in the theoretical formation of the category «liberated» labour. Thу author addresses the essential characteristics of the category of «liberated labour», analyzes the classification of labour as a category of economics, reveals the prospects for the development of the category of «alienated» and «liberated» labour, takes the gender specifics and modern realities of socio-economic transformations into the account; the author developed a set of theoretical provisions, methodological approaches and practical recommendations for the formation of an environment of «liberated labour». The theoretical and methodological issues of the intensifying usage of liberated labour are applying the effect of the entirety and are presented by supplementing in the field of terminological apparatus by the author's concept of «liberated labour». The contours of innovative reproduction are substantiated, they are proposed to be formed on the basis of the creation of institutions for the regulation and standardization of work of a new generation, the opening of researching laboratories that study labour activity.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):132-138
pages 132-138 views

STUDY OF THE ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE OF THE CUSTOMS AUTHORITIES OF THE REGION (BASED ON MATERIALS FROM THE SAMARA CUSTOMS)

Gorbunova Y.N., Trubitsyn K.V., Solovova N.V., Kalmykova O.Y.

Abstract

The organizational culture of customs authorities is understood by the authors as a set of norms, rules, customs and traditions that are supported by customs authorities and set a general framework for the behavior
of officials. To determine the key characteristics and analyze the dynamics of the organizational culture of the customs authorities, the methodology of Robert E. Quinn and Kim S. Cameron Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI) was used. This methodology is based on the framework construction
of competing values corresponding to four types of culture: clan, adhocratic, market, bureaucratic. According to the results of the survey, currently the bureaucratic type of organizational culture prevails in the Samara customs, the values of the other types of cultures are approximately equal to each other. At the same time, there are significant differences between the prevailing and preferred type of organizational culture. In the preferred state, the adhocratic type of culture predominates, bureaucracy is in second place in importance, then the clan and the market type of culture. At the second stage of the study, using the method of analyzing hierarchies, an expert assessment of the formation of the preferred – adhocratic type of organizational culture of customs authorities was carried out. The factor analysis of the identified types of organizational cultures of the customs authority made it possible to determine which type of organizational culture contains the potential for increasing the effectiveness of personnel management. To solve this problem, a mathematical tool was used – the method of analyzing hierarchies. The data obtained as a result of the application of the OCAI methodology and the hierarchy analysis method in the study of organizational culture made it possible to solve the problems of defining the type and strength of the culture dominant in the customs authorities, to establish profiles for the existing and intended organizational culture and to determine the scenario for further changes in the organizational culture of the customs authorities. contributing to improving the efficiency of personnel management.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):139-155
pages 139-155 views

MATHEMATICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS OF ECONOMICS

ON THE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DEVELOPING PROMISING AIRCRAFT MODELS

Artemenko I.V., Oleshko V.S.

Abstract

Creating a promising aircraft is an important area of state policy. Making the right decision to create a promising aircraft technology contributes to the economic assessment of the development efficiency. The subject of economic assessment is the updating of resources allocated for the development of the aircraft. An important component of ensuring high reliability of evaluating the effectiveness of the development of a promising aircraft is the methodology of its implementation. The methodology of economic assessment is aimed at determining economic indicators. The authors present the procedure for using the probability of economic success indicator in the economic assessment of the effectiveness of developing a promising aircraft when determining the feasibility of adopting a draft tactical and technical task for the development of an aircraft. To improve the accuracy of the economic assessment, it is proposed to use the standard error of alternative methods for calculating the cost of performing activities at the stages of the aircraft life cycle. The authors tested the proposed method on the example of a promising auxiliary power plant of a military transport aircraft. It is advisable to evaluate the cost of developing a promising auxiliary installation of a military transport aircraft based on the complexity of the development, determined depending on its basic complexity and cost. The authors tested the proposed method on the example of a promising auxiliary power plant of a military transport aircraft. The proposed method is applicable for calculating costs for other types of equipment at all stages of its life cycle.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):156-166
pages 156-166 views

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIVE MODELING OF EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL REINSURANCE MARKET STRUCTURES

Bogatyrev V.D., Rostova E.P.

Abstract

In the article the authors examine the reinsurance market of the Russian Federation; consider reinsurance premiums for incoming and outgoing external and internal reinsurance; based on statistical data, the authors made a conclusion about the externally oriented ceding market in the period 2013–2019. The authors present the structure of the reinsurance market by major companies and identify the main players in the market of incoming and outgoing reinsurance; consider the ratio of external and internal premiums for incoming and outgoing reinsurance. The authors complied time series models of reinsurance premiums for incoming and outgoing external and internal reinsurance based on retrospective data for 2016–2019. All functions are increasing, which indicates the positive dynamics of the studied market and the possibilities for further expansion and development. Based on the models, forecast values are calculated that allow to draw conclusions about the development and structure of the Russian reinsurance market. The reasons for the dominance of external reinsurance over internal in relation to outgoing contracts, consisting in the retroceding of risks to large international reinsurance companies, are identified, that occupy the most advantageous position in this market in comparison with domestic reinsurers.

 

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):167-175
pages 167-175 views

NUANCES OF IDENTIFICATION FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Duplyakin V.M.

Abstract

Statistical analysis of sample data is an effective tool for researching trends in economic processes and their critical conditions. The techniques in statistical analysis that are widely used in practice are based on the assumption that the sample data being considered follows a normal distribution. In the article the author reveals that the application of the popular K. Pearson criterion of agreement in such problems to confirm normality distributions of sample data can lead to false conclusions, in cases where the original general population is distributed according to the normal law, and the criterion indicates a low probability of implementing the normality hypothesis. The author proposes a numerical procedure for studying the nuances of identifying the normality in sample data; it uses a novel technique that is based on reference statistical series which correspond to samples of a certain size with the given, fixed estimates of the expected value and standard deviation. The author presents a numerical modeling method and the results of studying the characteristics of sample data that affect the errors in the identification of the normality of the sampled populations. The performed numerical experiments allowed us to obtain statistical data for investigating the reliability of the identification of the sampled distributions. The author presented recommendations that can help to avoid errors in identifying normality.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):176-183
pages 176-183 views

ON THE THEORY OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT SEASONAL PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE NUMBER OF CONSUMERS

Ilyina E.A., Parfenova A.Y., Saraev L.A.

Abstract

In the published article, a generalization of the mathematical model of the diffusion of consumer innovations in the market with a variable total volume, developed by the authors, is proposed for the case of periodic seasonal changes in the number of potential buyers. A system has been built, consisting of diffusion equations for an innovative product, taking into account periodic fluctuations in the number of market participants, and equations for changing the total number of potential buyers of an innovative product.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):184-189
pages 184-189 views

REGIONAL INDUSTRY CYCLES AND RESILIENCE OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Khmeleva G.A., Semenychev V.K., Korobetskaya A.A.

Abstract

The growth and reduction of cycle times is a characteristic feature of modern economy. Increasingly, cyclical factor is cause of imbalance and violation of global and national economies stability. However, the question of regional industry cycles asynchrony has not been studied. It was previously believed that the regional industry cycle, its stages of growth and decline, is consistent with the national one. The work shows that it is precisely the asynchrony of regional industrial cycles that underlies imbalance and reduces stability of country's economic development. The study presented by the authors expands boundaries of understanding the laws of recessions and upswings in industry cycles, since it reveals the causes and consequences of asynchronism of industry cycles in Russian regions. Terminologically, the regional sectoral cycle should be interpreted as a dynamic process of fluctuations in economic activity within life cycle of industry, characterized by repeatability of successive stages of decline and rise in the region's industry. The authors developed a classification of main parameters of regional industry cycle according to their cyclic properties, including leading, lagging and coinciding indicators of the cycle dynamics. A generalization of scientific and methodological approaches to industry cycles as a risk factor for sustainable and balanced development of regions is presented. The causes and consequences of regional sectoral cycles for the sustainability of regional economy are determined. The measures proposed for regional authorities to prevent the negative consequences of phase shift of sectoral regional cycle will be of practical importance.

Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management. 2020;11(3):190-202
pages 190-202 views

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