REGIONAL INDUSTRY CYCLES AND RESILIENCE OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY
- Authors: Khmeleva G.A.1, Semenychev V.K.1, Korobetskaya A.A.1
-
Affiliations:
- State University of Economics
- Issue: Vol 11, No 3 (2020)
- Pages: 190-202
- Section: MATHEMATICAL AND INSTRUMENTAL METHODS OF ECONOMICS
- URL: https://journals.ssau.ru/eco/article/view/8152
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.18287/2542-0461-2020-11-3-190-202
- ID: 8152
Cite item
Full Text
Abstract
The growth and reduction of cycle times is a characteristic feature of modern economy. Increasingly, cyclical factor is cause of imbalance and violation of global and national economies stability. However, the question of regional industry cycles asynchrony has not been studied. It was previously believed that the regional industry cycle, its stages of growth and decline, is consistent with the national one. The work shows that it is precisely the asynchrony of regional industrial cycles that underlies imbalance and reduces stability of country's economic development. The study presented by the authors expands boundaries of understanding the laws of recessions and upswings in industry cycles, since it reveals the causes and consequences of asynchronism of industry cycles in Russian regions. Terminologically, the regional sectoral cycle should be interpreted as a dynamic process of fluctuations in economic activity within life cycle of industry, characterized by repeatability of successive stages of decline and rise in the region's industry. The authors developed a classification of main parameters of regional industry cycle according to their cyclic properties, including leading, lagging and coinciding indicators of the cycle dynamics. A generalization of scientific and methodological approaches to industry cycles as a risk factor for sustainable and balanced development of regions is presented. The causes and consequences of regional sectoral cycles for the sustainability of regional economy are determined. The measures proposed for regional authorities to prevent the negative consequences of phase shift of sectoral regional cycle will be of practical importance.
Keywords
About the authors
Galina A. Khmeleva
State University of Economics
Author for correspondence.
Email: galina.a.khmeleva@yandex.ru
doctor of Economics, professor, head of the Department of World Economy
Russian FederationValeriy K. Semenychev
State University of Economics
Email: 505tot@mail.ru
doctor of Economics, professor, professor of the Department of Digital Technologies and Solutions
Russian FederationAnastasiya A. Korobetskaya
State University of Economics
Email: kaa.sseu@yandex.ru
candidate of Economic Sciences, associate professor of the Department of Digital Technologies and Solutions
Russian FederationReferences
- Khmeleva G.A. (Ed.) Russian regions under sanctions: opportunities for the advance development of an economy based on innovations: monograph. Samara: Izd-vo Samar. gos. ekon. un-ta, 2019, 446 p. (In Russ.)
- Semenychev V., Khmeleva G., Kozhukhova V. The Evolution of Technical Efficiency of Russian Regions in 2011–2016: SFA Stochastic Analysis Method with Spatial Effects. SSRN, 2018. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3245728 (accessed 28.03.2019).
- Slutsky E.E. Addition of random variables as a source of cyclic processes. Voprosy kon"iunktury, 1927, vol. 3, issue 1, pp. 27–33. (In Russ.)
- Ivanov P.A. Features of the cyclical development of regional economy. Problems of Modern Economics, 2010, no. 1 (1), pp. 176–181. Available at: https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/osobennosti-tsiklicheskogo-razvitiya-regionalnoy-ekonomiki. (In Russ.)
- Berkovich M.I., Komarova E.A. Branch analysis in the context of evolutionary development of economic systems. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2014, no. 1 (31), pp. 59–66. DOI: http://doi.org/10.15838/esc/2014.1.31.7. (In Russ.)
- Chernavskii D.S., Nikitin A.P., Chernavskaya O.D. Origins of Pareto distribution in nonlinear dynamic systems. Biophysics, 2008, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 351–358. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=
- (In Russ.)
- Semenychev V.K., Korobetskaya A.A. Multimodel Estimation for Innovative Development of 78 Russian Regions Using Leading Indicators During 2005–2017. SSRN. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3373579; http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3373579. (In Russ.)
- Tsvetkov V.A. Cycles and crises: theoretical and methodological aspect. Saint Petersburg: Nestor-Istoriia, 2013, 504 p. (In Russ.)
- Myrdal G. Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. London: Gerald Duckworth, 168 p.
- Petrakos G., Rodriguez-Pose A. & Rovolis A. Growth, integration, and regional disparities in the European Union. Environment and Planning А, 2005, no. 37 (10), pp. 1837–1857. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1068/a37348.
- Petrakos G., Saratsis Y. Regional inequalities in Greece. Papers in Regional Science, 2000, no. 79, pp. 57–74. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s101100050003.
- Rodriguez-Pose R., Fratesi U. Regional business cycles and the emergence of sheltered economies in the southern periphery of Europe. Growth and Change, 2007, no. 38, pp. 621–648. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2257.2007.00390.x
- Pobedin A.A., Fedulov D.V., Letaeva T.V. Theories and tools of counter-cyclical control of regional economic systems. Management Issues, 2017, no. 1 (44), pp. 79–89. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/
- item.asp?id=(In Russ.)
- Rötheli T.F. Should business rely on business cycle forecasting? Central European Journal of Operations Research, 2018, vol. 26, pp. 121–133. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-017-0477-8.
- Porter M.E. Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors. New York: Free Press, 1998, 397 p. Available at: https://kniga.biz.ua/pdf/250-competitive-strategy.pdf. (In Russ.)
- Gartner W.B. Who is an Entrepreneur? Is the Wrong Question. American Journal of Small Business, 1988, vol. 12 (4), pp. 11–32. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/104225878801200401.
- Fritsch M. Start-ups in Innovative Industries – Causes and Effects. In: D.B. Audretsch, O. Falck, S. Heblich & A. Lederer (Eds.) Handbook of Research on Innovation and Entrepreneurship. Chaltenham: Elgar, 2011,
- pp. 365–DOI: http://doi.org/10.4337/9781849807760.00033.
- Hansen A. Business Cycles and National Income. Moscow: Izd-vo inostr. lit., 1959, 243 p. (In Russ.)
- Safiullin M.R., Elshin L.A., Abdukaeva A.A. Assessment of the relationship between cyclical fluctuations in macro- and meso-level economics: tools and their testing. Research result. Economic Research, 2019, vol. 5,
- issue 3, pp. 19–DOI: http://doi.org/10.18413/2409-1634-2019-5-3-0-3. (In Russ.)
- Khmeleva G.A. Theoretical aspects of regional integration in the global system of economic relations. Russian Journal of Economic Theory, 2019, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 746–757. DOI: http://doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2019.16-4.11 (In Russ.)
- Stimson R.J., Stough R.R., Roberts B.H. Regional Economic Development: Analysis and Planning Strategy. Springer Science & Business Media, 2006, 452 p. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-34829-8.
- Kim D., Hong S. Regional business cycles and employment resilience in Korean regions. Area Development and Policy, 2019, vol. 4, issue 3, pp. 236–251. doi: 10.1080/23792949.2018.1537718.
- Lucas R.E. Understanding Business Cycles. In: Estrin S., Marin A. (Eds.) Essential Readings in Economics. Palgrave; London, 1995, pp. 306–327. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24002-9_17.
- Neffke F., Henning M., Boschma R., Lundquist K.-J., Olander L.-O. The Dynamics of Agglomeration Externalities along the Life Cycle of Industries. Regional Studies, 2011, vol. 45, issue 1, pp. 49–65. doi: 10.1080/00343401003596307.
- Khaberler G. Prosperity and depression: theoretical analysis of cyclic vibrations. Chelyabinsk: Sotsium, 2005, 474 p. (In Russ.)
- Gradov A.P. Cyclical development of economics and management of competitive advantages. Saint Petersburg: Poltorak, 2011, 1150 p. (In Russ.)
- Lvova N.A., Abramishvili N.R. Hipothysing the impact of industry cycles on the investment activity of Russian enterprises. Izvestiâ Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo èkonomičeskogo universiteta, 2019,
- no. 5–(119), pp. 66–91. Available at: https://www.elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=41442917. (In Russ.)
- Semenychev V.K., Korobetskaya A.A., Kozhukhova V.N. Offers of economic tools for modeling and forecasting evolutionary processes. Samara: SAGMU, 2015, 384 p. (In Russ.)
- Semenychev V.K., Kurkin E.I., Semenychev E.V., Danilova A.A. Multimodel forecasting of non-renewable resources production. Energy, 2017, no. 130, pp. 448–460. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.04.098.