Russian economy innovative development scenarios

The unfolding fourth industrial revolution sets global goals for the world community, requiring the implementation of systemic transformations in all spheres of human activity. Preparations for securing Russia's technological leadership began a long time ago. However, the measures being taken are not enough to build an integral innovation ecosystem, which would make it possible to organize at a high level the building up of innovative potential, its effective use and increase the country's competitiveness in a dynamically changing environment. The key problems of the shortage of expected effects include the lack of formation of the competitive market, the low potential of domestic research in the field of improving strategic planning and methodological tools for making managerial decisions, poor management at all levels of the production hierarchy, the low degree of interest of economic entities in innovative transformation and investment in changing organizational and managerial structures. The paper analyzes the scenario conditions that determine the formation of an innovative economy and the improvement of the country's rating at the global level. The main factors that maximally affect the resulting indicators of innovative activity are investigated. Predictive models of innovative development have been constructed depending on the intensity of changes in factors sensitive to variations in world trends. The need for a systemic restructuring of the traditional economic order is argued. Scientific and practical recommendations on increasing innovative activity and improving the digital culture of the subjects of the Russian economy, taking into account the existing opportunities and potential of world leadership, are proposed.