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The article gives a definition of criminological forecasting. The methods of criminological forecasting are analyzed: documentary, extrapolations, expert evaluations, modeling, mathematical model of image recognition, criminological forecasts based on card-based accounting systems, least squares method. Special attention is paid to the history of development of criminological forecasting in Russia. The statistical data on the composition of convicted persons in the Samara Region and in Russia in their ratio are studied. The factors characteristic for persons who have repeatedly committed crimes are revealed. The article analyzes the composition of convicted persons on such characteristics as sex, age, the presence of state of alcohol intoxication in the commission of a crime, attitudes toward work, categories of committed crimes, etc. The paper identifies the problems that arise when investigators compile criminological forecasts. An author's short-term forecast of the behavior of persons who served their sentences is proposed.

About the authors

D. V. Golenko

Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Samara National Research University

Author for correspondence.
Russian Federation


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Copyright (c) 2018 Д. В. Голенко

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