POLICY OF INNOVATIVE IMPORT SUBSTITUTION IN A CYCLICAL REGIONAL ECONOMY

The cyclical nature of the economy is an objective factor that affects all categories of economic entities. For households, it is important to understand the prospects for jobs, for the investor, the cycle provides an understanding of the prospects for returns on invested capital. The authors of the article tried to show that understanding and taking into account the cyclical nature is no less important when making decisions about import substitution policy. The stage of the regional industry cycle as a factor affecting the policy of innovative import substitution is usually not taken into account in research by scientists, since it is believed that the cyclical nature of the economy in the region is consistent with the national cycle. The article shows that the industry cycles in the regions differ significantly, in some regions there is a decline in the industry, while in the others there is the rise. The authors used a multi-model tools to show differences in the sectoral cycles of innovative economic activities in the Volga-Ural macro-region. Recommendations are given for implementing the policy of innovative import substitution under conditions of cyclical regional economy. The authors believe that with the help of import substitution policy, regional authorities can become active participants in the formation of an increasing stage of industry cycles, and thus increase the stability of economic growth in the region.