VESTNIK of Samara University. Aerospace and Mechanical EngineeringVESTNIK of Samara University. Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering2542-04532541-7533Samara National Research University839810.18287/2541-7533-2020-19-4-108-118UnknownTechnique for assessing the probability of survival of structural members with delaminationsChernyakinS. A.<p>Senior Lecturer</p>chernyakin-sa@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8796-7833Samara National Research University311220201941081181602202116022021Copyright © 2021, VESTNIK of Samara University. Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering2021<p>The paper presents a technique of quantitative assessment of probability of failure-free operation of composite structures containing an ensemble of defects in the form of delamination. This method is based on approaches of general reliability theory. The proposed method was validated relative to the assessment of reliability of a composite conical bay with multiple delaminations generated under loads at the stage of inserting the launch vehicle into orbit. The statistical dynamic problem was solved by using Monte Carlo method which was implemented by means of algorithms developed by the author in ANSYS software. Nonlinear analysis of the conical bay buckling was carried out for each implementation. Quantitative assessment of survival probability was conducted on the basis of the hypothesis of the law of Gaussian distribution of load-bearing capacity and using the graphical method of reliability calculation. Good agreement of the results obtained by both methods was noted.</p>Композиционные материалывероятность безотказной работыустойчивостьнелинейный анализрасслоенияконический отсекComposite materialsreliabilitybucklingnonlinear analysisdelaminationsconical bay[Glushkov S.V. Razrabotka metodov otsenki nadezhnosti i normirovaniya razmerov poverkhnostnykh treshchin v nefte- i gazoprovodakh. Diss. ... kand. tekh. nauk [Development of techniques of reliability assessment and surface crack size limitation in petroleum and gas transmission pipelines. Candidate’s dissertation (Engineering)]. Samara, 2015. 180 p.][Rusakov A.V. Raschetno-eksperimental'noe obespechenie nadezhnosti elementov konstruktsiy kosmicheskikh letatel'nykh apparatov na etape proektirovaniya. Diss. ... kand. tekh. nauk [Computational and experimental reliability control of spacecraft structural elements at the design stage. Candidate’s dissertation (Engineering)]. Samara, 2000. 164 p.][Kaminski M.M. Computational mechanics of composite materials: sensitivity, randomness and multiscale behavior. London: Springer-Verlag London, 2005. 418 p. DOI: 10.1007/b137775][Riddle T., Donnelly P., Cairns D.S., Nelson J.W. Use of statistical learning in a reliability program for risk assessment of composite structures with defects. 54th AIAA/ASME/ASCE/AHS/ASC Structures, Structural Dynamics, and Materials Conference (April, 8-11, 2013, Boston, Massachusetts). 2013. P. 1686. DOI: 10.2514/6.2013-1686][Zhou X.Y., Gosling P.D. Influence of stochastic variations in manufacturing defects on the mechanical performance of textile composites. Composite Structures. 2018. V. 194. P. 226-239. DOI: 10.1016/j.compstruct.2018.04.003][Agrafenin Yu.V., Perov S.N., Skvortsov Yu.V., Tarasov Yu.L. Obespechenie nadezhnosti truboprovodnykh sistem [Reliability control of pipeline systems]. Samara: SNTs Publ., 2008. 246 p.][Chernyakin S.A., Skvortsov Yu.V. Analysis of delamination propagation in composite structures. Vestnik SibGAU. 2014. No. 4 (56). P. 249-255. (In Russ.)][Skvortsov Yu.V., Chernyakin S.A., Glushkov S.V., Perov S.N. Simulation of fatigue delamination growth in composite laminates under mode I loading. Applied Mathematical Modelling. 2016. V. 40, Iss. 15-16. P. 7216-7224. DOI: 10.1016/j.apm.2016.03.019]