VESTNIK of Samara University. Aerospace and Mechanical EngineeringVESTNIK of Samara University. Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering2542-04532541-7533Samara National Research University271710.18287/2541-7533-2011-0-4(28)-48-57Forecasting and optimization of supplies in case of demand fluctuationsGorlachB. A.<p>Doctor of Technical Sciences</p><p>Professor of Department of the Mathematical Methods in Economics</p>tgorlach@yandex.ruSavelievG. L.<p>Post-graduate Student of Department of the Mathematical Methods in Economics</p>gsaveliev@riverlogic.comSamara State Aerospace University18122011104485712112015Copyright © 2015, VESTNIK of the Samara State Aerospace University2015Harmonic analysis is suggested as a method for establishing regularities of varying processes, represented in the form of statistical sets of values. A sample of a real-world process representation as the sum of square and trigonometric polynomials is considered. The problem of optimal balancing of supplies between those performed using the enterprise's own resources and contracted transportation resources is discussed.Trendtrigonometric polynomialstochastic and periodic componentsstochastic processforecastconfidence intervaldemandsuppliesresourseoptimizationТрендтригонометрический многочлен и полиномслучайная и колебательная составляющиеслучайный процесспрогноздоверительный интервалспроспоставкиресурсоптимизация